Price Pressures - What causes it? - Summer of Football Tips

Price Pressures - What causes it?

19/8/2012

With our great success recently we have started to see some price pressures on our tips. A number of our members have asked whether this is due to an increase in membership to our service? My honest answer is - I don't know!

Some facts...

Yes our membership has increased since our Hall of Fame ranking in SBC but not significantly. I would also like to state the membership size has not reached the heights our sister site iBetValue enjoyed in early 2011 and they experienced little pressure on prices in very similar leagues.

For the number of tips that prices fall there are still prices raising in games. Hopefully our membership is betting at even stakes so why would this be the case? From this weekend Chicago v New England was quoted at 1.8 with Bet365 and pretty much stayed there for 12 hours while 1.9 was easily achievable with other bookmakers. However the Coritiba v Cruzerio game was a different matter, Bet365 was quoting 2.3 and our tip was posted at 2.1. This price continued to fall fast all the way to kick off where the best price was 1.87. Why??? I'm convinced this wasn't the result of our members placing bets but other tipsters or syndicates finding out the same teams news I had. There is no way this game would have been picked on form alone so was their other inside information available?

Some unanswered questions

1. Why did the Chicago game go up in price if our tips are driving prices down?
2. Are some of our new members betting mega bucks... I'm talking 2-3k per bet?
3. Why did the Coritiba game fall so fast?
4. Are the majority of prices returning to what I quote nearer kick off?
5. Who will win the English Premier League? ;o)

At this stage I certainly don't have all the answers and plan to monitor this with your help. I want to keep this an attractive service where you as members can at the very least get the prices I quote from Bet365.

I welcome your comments and help...

5 Comments

Steve

19/8/2012 05:20:22 pm

James, I've signed up recently (not from SBC, i saw you on Mad Punter's daily email). I wish i was staking $2-3k per game but its more like 2-300 for me. Yes i did notice a bit of price pressure on the weekend, but certainly not as bad as I've seen with some other services. If this continues (and gets worse) it could be worth considering a "no bet under $X" offering. Some other services that suffer badly from price pressure have this, so that once the 'value' is gone you know not to place a bet. The other observation for me is the Asian lines you use aren't readily available on the Australian betting sites (that i can see), as a result i'm stuck with Bet365... It probably just means i need to look at opening accounts with UK bookies, but i haven't had a need for this as yet. I also think that whilst your member base may not have increased much, your 'distribution network' may have with recent form (ie, people passing on your tips to their mates)... no way you can get around this one.

James

19/8/2012 08:13:21 pm

Thanks for comment - 200-300 is still a fair whack and a good investment but these sums shouldn't be effecting the market. I recommend you get yourself a Pinnacle account right away. Click any of the links on my website.

Shane

19/8/2012 08:46:29 pm

Hi James, I am a new member so can only share my experiences with this weekend's results. Below I attach the selections struck with Bet365 and more importantly the times, in short the market prices had changed from the prices advised in your morning email.
I would like to try and keep all your selections via bet365 portal but in the long run I may miss some value on the Asian lines as they are shorter than what your email quoted.

I must stress all your bets were done to €40.00 level stakes, half the money of the recommended amount, so interesting to see if substantial money is pushing prices in??

Time of bet: 19/08/2012 11:56:01 am
New York Red Bulls -1.0,-1.5 Price 2.15

Time of bet: 19/08/2012 11:53:59 am
Coritiba Price 1.95

Time of bet: 18/08/2012 09:19:11am
Sporting Kansas City 0.0,-0.5 Price 2.025

Time of bet: 18/08/2012 09:17:59
Chicago Fire v N.E Revolution Price 1.8

Time of bet: 18/08/2012 09:15:50
Sao Paulo -0.5,-1.0 Odds 1.85

Bragantino v Ceara
Ceara 0.0,+0.5 Odds 1.825

James

19/8/2012 09:01:44 pm

I don't think you did to bad there considering you are solely using Bet365. As they don't accept such big stakes their prices are probably more driven by the market. If you can I would certainly suggest having another bookmaker up your sleeve and Pinnacle Sports would be the best in my opinion for Asian Handicap

Jonathan

5/9/2012 01:55:10 am

I've always been told (by bookie traders that follow me, mainly) that my recommended bets won't have any affect on market prices, but given that you're a subscription only service I have to assume that one of your members works for Bet 365 or a trading firm. If you have big recognition they're going to. I know one firm that has good tipsters listed in their back office system... Also, as mentioned in one of the responses above, perhaps one or more of your members copy your tips onto their site. A lot of punters are daft enough to include the @ whatever bookie name in tweets when mentioning prices. That can't help in general.

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.

JP

I'm a '30 something' football tipster who has a knack of picking winners! I am degree educated and have run software and professional services businesses but my passion has always been football and betting. My mission is to help people see betting as an investment option rather than being perceived as gambling. Long term I want to educate people betting can be an alternative to buying shares, bonds or ISAs. It will be a long journey...

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