Conspiracy Theory #1 Are we being watched?

4/9/2012

I may be paranoid but here are a few facts from the email I sent today to our members

I emailed a tip today from Brazil A on the Asian Handicap -1 Market. The price was 1.9 when emailed

The email was sent 6.38am UK time or 3.38pm in Australia
At 6.41am UK time . That's just 3 minutes later the price moved lower by 5p with Bet365 and 4 minutes later by 4p with Pinnacle
At 7.01am UK time - Just 19 minutes later the price had fallen by 10p with Bet365 and 7p with Pinnacle

Now correct me if I am wrong but the majority of my membership comes from the UK and there is no way in hell the majority placed their bets within 19 minutes of receiving the email. I would be surprised if more than a dozen members placed a bet before 7am. To prove this please email if you did place your bet before 7am (4pm Australia) and I will let you know back here on the blog how many did.

Now, perhaps I am being big headed to even think the bookmakers might care about my tips but I seriously have to wonder what else could possibly move the price so quickly when it physically can't be the volume of money backing the tip.

I would love to hear from my members, other tipsters, industry experts or our friends at Secret Betting club whether this is a tactic of the bookmakers or whether it is simply just coincidence.

Let's just hope the bet comes in now!

4 Comments

Pete link

4/9/2012 06:01:16 pm

Interesting post.

Looking at the odds at 8.50am the best price for this bet is now 1.82 with Pinnacle and as short as 1.77 with Bet365.

Whether this odds movement is a one-off or part of a bigger move, I think only odds tracking over future bets will resolve. It could be you wish to take a leaf out of Skeeve's book who settles bets at odds 5-10 minutes after sent if this trend continues.

If you place these bets yourself with Bet365 it could be that your account is marked and they slash any odds on bets your place. Pinnacle are less likely to do this and it sometimes doesnt take huge amounts for them to change their odds-line. Even more so on a AH Brazil Serie A game I would imagine! Similarly it could be it doesnt take a lot of money staked with Bet365 to make them change their prices on a fairly obscure game for the UK market to be betting on.

It could well be that someone from Bet365 (again most likely as Pinnacle welcome 'sharps' as they term them) is also a member and alerting people to the odds on offer. A few different scenarios on offer and I would be tempted to monitor this over different leagues/times and see if it continues.

Edu

5/9/2012 07:53:44 pm

OddsPortal has a very interesting feature: letting the cursor rest on a specific odds-line, a window opens up showing its evolution and the time of change.

Today I received your mail at 8:38 (GMT +1) for the plays
Fluminense -0.75 vs Santos and Palmeiras -0.75 vs Sport. I assume that all subscribers got your mail at about the same time.

OddsPortal shows that the strong drop in both odds-line has taken place at 6:57 in Bet365 for the first game, from 1,83 to 1,73, and at 6:48 in Pinnacle from 1,77 to 1,72 for the Palmeiras game.

Assuming that none of the subscribers had even received your e-mail between 6:45 and 7:00, the most plausible reason for the sudden drop in odds is that you are betting very heavily each play in only one bookmaker.

Maybe spreading out the amount of your wager among several bookmakers will not raise attention and/or will not trigger the software that detects heavy betting on a specific odds-line and changes it automatically.

James link

6/9/2012 10:59:58 am

Edu - thanks for your post
I think we are all jumping to conclusions including myself. Today's tips could have both been placed at higher odds than I suggested. This is going to be a long term measuring thing and I now expect over the long run people will achieve the average odds I suggest. The days of beating my odds every time may have gone but certainly not getting my odds. Again, lets keep monitoring and hopefully today's tips come through for us

Rowan link

6/9/2012 11:02:08 am

I'll let you know my thoughts from my experience of other tipsters.

With some services, the odds move incredibly quickly. Popular and established services such as Skeeve undoubtedly shape the market as subscribers lump on the bets immediately upon release. It is quite possible that sheer weight of members' money getting on at the same time does crash the odds.

With yours though, I agree it does look strange because as you say, I can't think that the majority of your subscribers in the UK all got on the bet as soon as it was published.

The more interesting angle is the shortening of odds with Bet365. I can't place a bet with them now, but I could and did for a couple of years before being severely restricted. They were one bookie that would actually hold a price for a little while - I remember using Bet365 to get on some of Skeeve's picks last season at a decent price after many of the other books had shortened considerably. Is it the case that the affiliation link means they can monitor your selections closely, see how successful they've been, and therefore they're adjusting appropriately? I don't know how it works between you and them but just a thought.

This compares with Pinnacle which is an excellent bookmaker in terms of non-limitation of stakes and their policy of not closing winning accounts. But, in my experience, the price to pay for that is that they do slash odds very, very quickly, ie. as soon as they detect any momentum behind a particular selection. What usually happens is that the price at Pinnacle crashes, before then recovering as the market matures and money for the other team starts balancing out their liabilities. A tactic I use for Football Elite is often to avoid placing the bets at release time, but wait until not too long before kick off when the prices at Pinnacle and the likes are actually better than they were when the bet was released.

I've often wondered if bookmakers subscribe to tipping services. With horse racing, Paddy Power is always very quick to cut prices of selections from the tipsters I follow. I'd be absolutely amazed if Pinnacle or the likes of SBO did this though - not with the size of turnover they manage.

The other possibility I'm afraid, is piracy. Is anyone forwarding your tips on as part of a relay service? I'm not sure how you can monitor this, but I do know the SBC are aware of this issue and I'm sure they would have some ideas on identifying if this is indeed a problem. I do know for a fact that piracy is or has been an issue for some services.

Ultimately though, when a service has a high level of success within a relatively short period of time, as you have over the last couple of months, as a follower I kinda expect odds to come under more pressure. Obviously this isn't ideal for you, but what usually happens is the service has a losing spell, followers who haven't set up their banks properly or who are, very frankly, mentally weak (and I don't want to sound condescending here because I used to be myself, but I think there are a lot like that), subsequently stop following which then eases the pressure on prices and mean they don't fall so quickly after bet release. At the moment though, I wouldn't be surprised if many of the new subscribers you will have picked up as a result of the SBC putting you into their HoF, allied to the past two months' outstanding results, aren't upping their stakes (I have, as you know). I know Graeme at The Football Analyst is aware of these issues and is in as similar position with regards recent HoF entry and an expanded customer base - last year I was often able to beat his odds attached to each selection, but neither of us are so sure that will be possible this season for the reasons I've just mentioned.

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JP

I'm a '30 something' football tipster who has a knack of picking winners! I am degree educated and have run software and professional services businesses but my passion has always been football and betting. My mission is to help people see betting as an investment option rather than being perceived as gambling. Long term I want to educate people betting can be an alternative to buying shares, bonds or ISAs. It will be a long journey...

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Conspiracy Theory #1 Are we being watched?

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