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Can you go a week without having a beer?

9/10/2012

4 Comments

 
I had a question from a member today following up on the tilt post below. He wrote...
"Hi James, just emailing looking for a bit of advice on how to stop betting on the tilt as I see you talking about it on the blog  it is not something I do a lot but have done it and not very successfully have you any advice on how to improve my discipline... all tips would be greatly appreciated"

I thought I would share my response for everyone

That is a hard question because it all comes down to discipline. Can you diet successfully for a month? can you give up beer for 2 weeks? can you not have a bet for a week?  can you try not to swear for a week?

They are all questions you should ask yourself and actually try them to prove you can be a disciplined person.

You then need to understand the difference between gambling and betting value. For me Gambling is taking a risk and betting on something you really have no idea of the outcome (This is what we do when we bet on Tilt) Betting to me is taking a measured risk on something we believe has a better chance of the outcome than the price being currently offered.

When you bet on Tilt you rarely have a chance to understand whether something is a value bet because you place a bet in a hurry to try and make up losses.

So every time you feel like placing a bet straight after a loss or run of losses....think to yourself....Is this is a value bet? If it is not...don't place it! Easier said than done.

Finally to be successful you need a set of strict rules that you follow every day. Not betting on Tilt should be one of them, Not betting drunk should be another, only bet on value, only bet a max stake which your betting bank allows...the list goes on.

I would ask you to write a list of 6 rules. Print them out - put them in your wallet and when ever you have a bet check off each point. You will do it from memory eventually. You can also make the rules about how you select your bets E.g - Your selection criteria for football might be.

1) Never bet on derby games
2) Never bet on games where manager has just changed
3) Never bet against a top 4 side
4) Never bet against a team with a strong head to head record.

I'm not sure what you are betting on....football, racing, casino but for all these you will need a generic and a unique set of rules.

Remember following a tipster is just as hard a discipline. Can you follow every tip? Will you stick with it during a losing run? If you can't you are very unlikely to ever succeed.

Finally you should never take the fun out of betting and here I will use the word gambling. If you want to have a gamble, a fun bet or a drunk bet with your friends or on a game you are watching then do it but only bet a max of a fiver! Simple.

I hope these words help and I look forward to hearing your rules,

4 Comments
staci link
21/10/2012 10:18:01 pm

Hi James, can i ask you thorts on having a portfolio of tipsters verse just having just one main service. I do see the advantages of having a porfolio of services but to a somebody with limited funds and having the time to place bets i see the sence in just having a main service to follow such as yours. I ask this question as i to do belive in bet investment in the same way as having shares. Also i think we would have done much better on your investment than the share markets we have. Thank you and to any body else who may be kind enough to share there thorts and experiences. S.

Reply
James
22/10/2012 11:37:49 am

I think this is an excellent concept if you have the discipline to manage the process. Personally I have been very poor at following other football tipsters because I always question their selections so I skip certain tips and this doesn't work/ I do however follow some horse racing tipsters and this has proved successful. If you are interested in this you should read Rowan's blog. He is a members and is trying to make a living from having a Portfolio of tipsters he follows. www.theportfolioinvestor.blogspot.com.au/
It is well worth a read and he is very helpful if you leave a comment on his blog

Reply
staci
29/10/2012 02:27:18 am

Hi james, what a great weekend of football you certainly pulled it out the fire. Last minute goals sendings off i think the gods were smiling on us. These things certainly even them selves out over a season i would say and we deserve our wins. You have done a great job for us since the summer to give us such a smooth ride.
Can i ask since the more lean to the Asian Lines would you say the value and the over journey overall has been better? I do realy like the Asian Lines as the certainly seem to offer more value and as you say value will bring us out on top in the long term. Thank you for your words of wisdom. Any more on your top ten betting rules? cheers, staci.

Reply
James
29/10/2012 03:37:33 pm

Hi Staci
yes I'm enjoying the AH - I certainly think there is greater value and less risk. Our losses are often only half losses these days which certainly helps. I will try and post some more rules this week for you!
Glad someone is reading LOL

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    I'm a '30 something' football tipster who has a knack of picking winners! I am degree educated and have run software and professional services businesses but my passion has always been football and betting. My mission is to help people see betting as an investment option rather than being perceived as gambling. Long term I want to educate people betting can be an alternative to buying shares, bonds or ISAs. It will be a long journey...

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