Staci left a message on the last blog entry for me to add some more rules of betting. Firstly I was shocked someone was actually reading the blog and secondly I was even more surprised somebody wanted to read more of my rambles but here goes...

This point is about only betting on what you understand or betting on advice you receive from who you perceive an experts in this field. To explain

I have bought shares in companies many times and let me tell you I have lost more money than I have made due to the simple fact I have bought companies I know nothing about. You speculate or dare I say gamble because the media makes out the mining industry is going through the roof or the banks are bullet proof! LOL how wrong could they be? In Australia they still say the banks are bullet proof and then in came the liquidators last week on Banksia! Totally out of the blue and millions of dollars lost. Anyhow I diverse...my point is, unless you have inside information (which is not legal) or you are getting first class expert advise which you pay for (pension or super) then don't bother buying shares. Exactly the same goes with Sports Betting.

I have in the past bet and failed miserably on betting on AFL, Rugby, Horse Racing, Tennis, Golf, Cricket, Darts and probably marbles! I have lost because I am gambling, I am taking a punt on an outcome I have no clue about. I am doing this for the sheer thrill of having a bet. This is fine when it is just for fun but they can all add up and massacre your betting bank at anytime.

To summarise it is vital you do your own research and learn to specialise in a particular market. It is physically impossible to specialise in all the markets listed above and for me I have chosen to just bet on Football unless I have expert advise (or follow a tipster). I take this even further by only specialising on a hand full of leagues. I would argue it is impossible to cover all leagues around the world. There simply isn't enough time in the day to do adequate research.

My final point is that of tipsters and why we exist. We can specialise in markets or leagues you cannot yourself and that is why you subscribe to us. I follow a Horse Racing and Rugby tipster for that exact reason. Tipsters should also apply the discipline required to be successful which in turn will generate you profits.

DYOR

(I used to see this on share forums all the time referring to DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. Anyone who posted to buy a particular share would sign off with this to probably make themselves feel better when the share price collapsed LOL)

I had a question from a member today following up on the tilt post below. He wrote...
"Hi James, just emailing looking for a bit of advice on how to stop betting on the tilt as I see you talking about it on the blog  it is not something I do a lot but have done it and not very successfully have you any advice on how to improve my discipline... all tips would be greatly appreciated"

I thought I would share my response for everyone

That is a hard question because it all comes down to discipline. Can you diet successfully for a month? can you give up beer for 2 weeks? can you not have a bet for a week?  can you try not to swear for a week?

They are all questions you should ask yourself and actually try them to prove you can be a disciplined person.

You then need to understand the difference between gambling and betting value. For me Gambling is taking a risk and betting on something you really have no idea of the outcome (This is what we do when we bet on Tilt) Betting to me is taking a measured risk on something we believe has a better chance of the outcome than the price being currently offered.

When you bet on Tilt you rarely have a chance to understand whether something is a value bet because you place a bet in a hurry to try and make up losses.

So every time you feel like placing a bet straight after a loss or run of losses....think to yourself....Is this is a value bet? If it is not...don't place it! Easier said than done.

Finally to be successful you need a set of strict rules that you follow every day. Not betting on Tilt should be one of them, Not betting drunk should be another, only bet on value, only bet a max stake which your betting bank allows...the list goes on.

I would ask you to write a list of 6 rules. Print them out - put them in your wallet and when ever you have a bet check off each point. You will do it from memory eventually. You can also make the rules about how you select your bets E.g - Your selection criteria for football might be.

1) Never bet on derby games
2) Never bet on games where manager has just changed
3) Never bet against a top 4 side
4) Never bet against a team with a strong head to head record.

I'm not sure what you are betting on....football, racing, casino but for all these you will need a generic and a unique set of rules.

Remember following a tipster is just as hard a discipline. Can you follow every tip? Will you stick with it during a losing run? If you can't you are very unlikely to ever succeed.

Finally you should never take the fun out of betting and here I will use the word gambling. If you want to have a gamble, a fun bet or a drunk bet with your friends or on a game you are watching then do it but only bet a max of a fiver! Simple.

I hope these words help and I look forward to hearing your rules,

I wanted to mention this today because a cardinal sin of gambling is betting on tilt and I watched a fellow Tipster, I follow, suffer this over the weekend. Tilt is a poker term for a state of mental or emotional confusion or frustration in which a player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-aggressive. This term can also be applied to all forms of betting (not just poker) and for me it is usually when your are chasing losses. You are so frustrated by a run of losses you simply go looking for another bet to even things up or at least make you feel better. I can tell you 9 times out of 10 you will feel worse.

So my fellow Tipster constantly makes profit on the Australian horses, every month betting at even stakes. I have rarely seen him have a bad month. This weekend he however had a shocker where all 5 bets lost and they were mainly favourites. Ok it happens...move on....you are still well in profit for the last 3 months and there are 2 weeks left in September to profit... BUT NO - I get a text at 4.09 PM on the Saturday with another tip. The text read "Bad day we have a bet to even up, Mooney Valley, race 7 n 6"

I happened to be driving the car at the time (I know, I shouldn't read my texts while driving) and my wife asked who was it? I replied "just someone on Tilt". Her reply was "oh dear!" which the fact she understood made me laugh. I'm sure she could quote my 10 commandments of betting and perhaps I should post them here one day

When I got home I checked the racing results and that horse was a 5/1 shot - he really was trying to even things up and from memory I think it finished 5th or 6th.

I'm sure I'm not telling you anything new but even the best of us fall into the trap of betting on tilt...especially if we've had a drink - which is another commandment - Never bet drunk! Anyway I diverse, the point is everyone needs to reminded of when and when not to bet!

Would love to hear what your rules of betting or commandments are and I promise to write some more of mine on the blog over the coming weeks

After yesterday's fuss about pricing we have 2 tips today and you could get higher prices than I quoted quite comfortably. Yes there was a dip but it soon came back so my theory in my earlier post is probably flawed already!

Could it simply be a coincidence that other large betting syndicates also place the same bet but I am getting the tip out first? This would be what really significantly drives a price down.

Our monitoring continues....Good Luck tonight in Brazil Serie A

I may be paranoid but here are a few facts from the email I sent today to our members

• I emailed a tip today from Brazil A on the Asian Handicap -1 Market. The price was 1.9 when emailed
  

• The email was sent 6.38am UK time or 3.38pm in Australia
• At 6.41am UK time . That's just 3 minutes later the price moved lower by 5p with Bet365 and 4 minutes later by 4p with Pinnacle
• At 7.01am UK time - Just 19 minutes later the price had fallen by 10p with Bet365 and 7p with Pinnacle

Now correct me if I am wrong but the majority of my membership comes from the UK and there is no way in hell the majority placed their bets within 19 minutes of receiving the email. I would be surprised if more than a dozen members placed a bet before 7am. To prove this please email if you did place your bet before 7am (4pm Australia) and I will let you know back here on the blog how many did.

Now, perhaps I am being big headed to even think the bookmakers might care about my tips but I seriously have to wonder what else could possibly move the price so quickly when it physically can't be the volume of money backing the tip.

I would love to hear from my members, other tipsters, industry experts or our friends at Secret Betting club whether this is a tactic of the bookmakers or whether it is simply just coincidence.

Let's just hope the bet comes in now!

With our great success recently we have started to see some price pressures on our tips. A number of our members have asked whether this is due to an increase in membership to our service? My honest answer is - I don't know!

Some facts...

Yes our membership has increased since our Hall of Fame ranking in SBC but not significantly. I would also like to state the membership size has not reached the heights our sister site iBetValue enjoyed in early 2011 and they experienced little pressure on prices in very similar leagues.

For the number of tips that prices fall there are still prices raising in games. Hopefully our membership is betting at even stakes so why would this be the case? From this weekend Chicago v New England was quoted at 1.8 with Bet365 and pretty much stayed there for 12 hours while 1.9 was easily achievable with other bookmakers. However the Coritiba v Cruzerio game was a different matter, Bet365 was quoting 2.3 and our tip was posted at 2.1. This price continued to fall fast all the way to kick off where the best price was 1.87. Why??? I'm convinced this wasn't the result of our members placing bets but other tipsters or syndicates finding out the same teams news I had. There is no way this game would have been picked on form alone so was their other inside information available?

Some unanswered questions

1. Why did the Chicago game go up in price if our tips are driving prices down?
2. Are some of our new members betting mega bucks... I'm talking 2-3k per bet?
3. Why did the Coritiba game fall so fast?
4. Are the majority of prices returning to what I quote nearer kick off?
5. Who will win the English Premier League? ;o)

At this stage I certainly don't have all the answers and plan to monitor this with your help. I want to keep this an attractive service where you as members can at the very least get the prices I quote from Bet365.

I welcome your comments and help...

I was delighted to discover yesterday we had been upgraded to the Secret Betting Club's - Hall of Fame. Big deal you cry! Well yes for me it is because they have religiously tracked our results over the past 16 months along with hundreds of other tipsters and only a handful of services can claim achieving this.

If you have not heard of the Secret Betting club you should really check them out because they are like the Betting Police and god our industry needs it By providing a monthly e-magazine they flag the best and the worst systems out there helping you find the real gems and avoid the common scams. They provide great honest reviews (read ours here) but they are much more than this with an interactive website full of back catalogues, forums and advice. Great reading all round.

This is what the SBC had to say when promoting us to the Hall of Fame

"As the name suggests, Summer of Football, has been one of the few active tipsters over recent months and enjoyed a hugely rich vein of form in July, winning 24 of 32 active bets. This brought a whopping ROI of 35.96%. The past few months tipping helped break the 500 tip barrier for the service and we now have a wealth of experience as per their betting record, enough to make a more considered decision and improved rating. This is especially the case given the high strike-rate, low-odds approach they take as its very hard to fluke a strong record at these betting odds.

So with 16months of results, 500+ bets, a proven strategy and a low monthly cost we are happy to upgrade Summer of Football into our Hall of Fame, prior to the new season."

I am proud to be part of this exclusive group which is currently only made up of a handful of services from the racing and sports community. My goal now is to maintain this status and try to top some of their leader-boards. Always remembering... "Whatever it was that got you where you are today is not sufficient to keep you there"

I've been meaning to get a blog up and running on this site for some time but simply due to (lack of) time this has proved incredibly difficult  to get going. Fortunately I am now getting on top of many things, including fatherhood, my day job, walking the dog, playing competitive football, renovating a house, keeping up with friends and family, running this website and being a good husband! It doesn't sound that much when you write it down in a blog...LOL...who am I trying to kid?

But seriously, I absolutely love doing all these things and wouldn't change a thing apart from perhaps looking to move into a full time position in the betting industry. That also needs to be done without giving up the lifestyle my family has become accustomed to! (Music from mission impossible kicks in)

This blog will be all about that journey and ultimately how I plan to go about educating the world that gambling should be percieved in the same light as other investments such as buying shares, bonds and investments. I would like to see the day people can put their hard earned cash into a pension fund which is invested on their behalf on sports markets around the world. Obviously the liquidity has a long way to go on the likes of Betfair and other betting exchanges but I'm sure that day will come. The hard part will be changing government perception and legislation (there will be lots about this on the blog)

Anyway that's the serious part out of way now and don't worry I do also plan to have some fun. I hope to hear lots of your comments on any subject you feel relevant, share betting feel good and horror stories, help the odd charity out and start a free rolling accumulator. More to follow...